USD/CLP Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is currently below its recent average and around the lower end of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady contrasts with the Central Bank of Chile's recent rate cuts, maintaining a lower rate to stimulate the economy.
• Risk/commodities: With U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions increasing, this adds volatility to the USD, affecting its attractiveness compared to stable currencies like the CLP.
• One macro factor: The Chilean economy showed positive growth in 2025, driven by strong export performance, particularly in mining, which supports the peso.
Range:
The USD/CLP is likely to drift within its recent range as external pressures and local economic performance weigh on the exchange rate.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive shift in the U.S. labor market could boost the USD's appeal and lead to a stronger dollar.
• Downside risk: Increased political uncertainties in Chile may lead to a further depreciation of the peso if investor confidence wanes.
