The USD to HUF exchange rate has recently come under significant pressure, influenced by ongoing concerns related to U.S. monetary policy and Hungary's economic fundamentals. As of now, the USD is trading at approximately 328.3 HUF, which is notably 3.5% lower than its three-month average of 340.3 HUF and represents 90-day lows.
Analysts are particularly concerned about the Federal Reserve's trajectory following the Senate's recent confirmation of Stephen Miran to its board. The potential for rapid interest rate cuts advocated by some political figures and instability surrounding the Fed's independence may continue to weaken the USD. The upcoming Consumer Price Index report is expected to draw attention, as any indication of rising inflation could prompt further easing of monetary policy, thereby exerting additional pressure on the dollar.
In Hungary, the economic landscape presents its own challenges. Projections indicate a budget deficit reaching 4.5% of GDP for 2025, exacerbated by sluggish European growth and pre-election spending. Additionally, the nomination of Finance Minister Mihaly Varga to lead the central bank raises questions about future interest rate policies, potentially impacting the HUF’s stability.
Moreover, discussions around euro adoption are becoming more prominent as public support remains high amid concerns over the forint's depreciation. This sentiment reflects a broader unease regarding the impact of external factors, including proposed U.S. tariffs on European imports, which could hurt Hungary’s economy given its strong trade ties with Germany.
As a result, the exchange rate dynamics are likely to remain volatile. The recent trading range of the USD to HUF—in a relatively stable band of 328.3 to 351.9—suggests that market participants are closely monitoring both U.S. and Hungarian economic developments. Forecasters caution that investors should remain vigilant as shifts in either the Fed's stance or Hungary's economic policy could lead to further fluctuations in the USD to HUF exchange rate.
