AUD/CHF Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average, yet there is no clear driver pushing it higher.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates recently, contrasting with the Swiss National Bank's potential return to negative rates.
• Risk/commodities: The Australian dollar has benefitted from positive demand for commodities from China, while ongoing uncertainty keeps risk appetite tempered.
• One macro factor: Declining consumer confidence in Australia poses risks to domestic spending, impacting the AUD outlook.
Range:
Movement is expected to hold within the recent 3-month range, as the rate is relatively stable.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected trade data from Australia could boost the AUD.
• Downside risk: Continued decline in consumer confidence might weigh on the AUD further.
