AUD/THB Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia has recently raised interest rates, while the Bank of Thailand is tightening regulations, potentially impacting the strength of both currencies.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are at recent highs, which may support the Australian dollar, a commodity currency. Higher oil prices typically boost demand for AUD due to Australia's export profile.
• One macro factor: Recent Australian inflation data has surpassed expectations, increasing the likelihood of further rate hikes and supporting the AUD.
Range:
Expect the AUD/THB to drift within its recent range, holding above the average.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-anticipated recovery in consumer confidence in Australia could bolster the AUD further.
• Downside risk: Continued pressure from domestic concerns in Australia, such as rising living costs or bearish consumer sentiment, could weaken the AUD and impact the pair.
