CAD/MXN Outlook:
Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, given that the rate is below its recent average and within mid-range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has maintained interest rates while the Bank of Mexico has cut rates, impacting the attractiveness of the CAD relative to the MXN.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have recently risen significantly, supporting the CAD as Canada is a major oil exporter.
• Economic stability: Mexico's stable economic outlook and efforts to control inflation continue to provide a supportive backdrop for the MXN.
Range:
Expect the CAD/MXN exchange rate to hold steady, given its position within a stable recent range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sustained increase in oil prices could bolster the CAD.
• Downside risk: Further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Mexico could increase appeal for the MXN.