The exchange rate forecast for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the Philippine Peso (PHP) reflects a mix of cautious sentiment and underlying strength amid various economic indicators. As of September 2025, the CAD is trading at 41.21 PHP, slightly below its three-month average of 41.42 PHP, indicating relative stability within a narrow range of 40.83 to 41.94 PHP. This steady performance can be partly attributed to the CAD's close connection with global oil prices, which have recently shown volatility; currently, oil is trading at $67.95, just 1.0% below its three-month average of $68.63, but it has experienced fluctuations in a significant range of 20.4%.
Recent news indicates bearish sentiment reaching a five-month high, with increased net short positions on the CAD amidst weak job reports that may propel interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada (BoC). Analysts predict that this will impact the CAD in the near term, particularly with expectations for a potential rate cut at an upcoming policy meeting. However, there is also a more optimistic outlook based on a Reuters poll, which suggests that the CAD could strengthen by as much as 1.4% to 1.36 USD over the next three months, and further by 2.8% over the year, if the BoC nears the end of its easing cycle.
On the Philippine Peso side, inflation trends have shown a modest increase to 1.5%, although this remains below the central bank's target range. Developments in monetary policy also play a critical role, with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas indicating plans for further rate cuts, thus creating a potential headwind for the PHP. Despite these factors, investor sentiment appears to be shifting positively towards the PHP as conditions surrounding the U.S. dollar deteriorate.
Overall, the CAD to PHP exchange rate is set against a backdrop of mixed economic influences from both countries, with oil prices remaining a significant driver for the CAD's performance. Participants in the currency market should remain attentive to updates from central banks and macroeconomic indicators, which will be crucial in navigating the evolving landscape of the CAD to PHP exchange rate.
