The recent currency forecasts for the Swiss Franc (CHF) to Chinese Yuan (CNY) exchange rate have been influenced by significant developments in both economies. Analysts have noted a concerning backdrop for the CHF due to the imposition of a 39% tariff by the U.S. on Swiss exports, which resulted in a 5.3% decline in Swiss exports during the second quarter of 2025. This tariff, viewed as more severe than those affecting the EU or the UK, has raised alarms regarding the sustainability of Switzerland's export-led economy. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) also reported considerable losses, amounting to 15.3 billion Swiss francs in the first half of 2025, mainly due to the weakening U.S. dollar, further adding pressure on the CHF.
In response to weak economic signals, including a downgraded growth forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to 1.3%, the SNB cut interest rates to zero in June 2025. This environment of low interest rates has raised concerns among forecasters about the CHF's resilience. Currently, the CHF to CNY exchange rate is at 8.9427, which is close to its three-month average, fluctuating in a stable range of 8.7770 to 9.0574.
Conversely, the Chinese Yuan has recently been bolstered by strategic policy decisions aimed at strengthening the currency amid trade tensions. Analysts observed that the yuan appreciated to 7.14 per U.S. dollar, marking its highest level since late 2024. This upward momentum is attributed to significant capital inflows and a record global trade surplus, as China attempts to leverage a firmer yuan for smoother trade negotiations with the U.S.
Furthermore, initiatives to promote the digital yuan and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar have also positioned the CNY favorably in the global currency landscape. Economic growth figures surpassed expectations, leading to renewed confidence in the Chinese economy despite ongoing challenges. With the Federal Reserve hinting at potential rate cuts, experts predict that the CNY could remain strong.
Given these dynamics, the outlook for the CHF against the CNY appears clouded by external pressures on Switzerland’s economy, while China’s intentional strengthening of its currency and robust economic signals may bolster the yuan. Therefore, those engaging in international transactions may want to keep a close watch on these developments as they consider timing and amounts for currency exchanges.
