The Swiss Franc (CHF) and South African Rand (ZAR) have recently faced significant developments affecting their exchange rate, particularly in the CHF-ZAR pairing. Analysts note that the CHF has been pressured by escalating tariffs imposed by the U.S., which saw a staggering 39% tariff on Swiss exports in August 2025. This action has led to a reduction in Swiss exports by 5.3% in the second quarter of 2025, fundamentally threatening the export-oriented Swiss economy. Furthermore, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported substantial losses during the first half of the year, attributing this to the underperformance of foreign investments tied to a weakening U.S. dollar.
In addition to these factors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut Switzerland's growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3%, highlighting geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties as determining influences. The SNB's decision to lower interest rates to zero in June 2025 reflects an attempt to stimulate the economy amidst these challenges. As a result, the CHF has trended downwards, with recent price data indicating that the CHF to ZAR exchange rate has reached 14-day lows near 21.81, 1.3% below its three-month average of 22.1.
In contrast, the South African Rand has shown relative stability despite its own economic pressures, including a 30% tariff on exports to the U.S. The ZAR remains steady at 17.58 against the U.S. dollar, with market participants focusing on domestic economic reports, particularly second-quarter GDP data. The recent increase in South Africa's foreign reserves has provided some support to the ZAR, contributing to a slight appreciation of approximately 0.4%. Nonetheless, declining business confidence, now at 39 points during the third quarter, adds to the uncertainty surrounding the ZAR's performance.
Market analysts have observed oil prices trading at 66.99, which is 2.9% below its three-month average, within a volatile range that could also impact the ZAR, given South Africa's reliance on commodity exports. With oil prices fluctuating and the ZAR facing pressures from external tariffs, the market outlook remains cautious.
Overall, the outlook for the CHF-ZAR exchange rate suggests continued volatility, influenced by external trade developments, and domestic economic performance, making it essential for businesses and individuals to closely monitor these dynamics.
