Forecasts for EUR to AUD
The EUR/AUD exchange rate has recently shown volatility, with current prices nearing 14-day lows at approximately 1.7531. This figure is 1.9% above the three-month average of 1.7214, indicating a broader trend of fluctuation, with movements ranging from 1.6402 to 1.8395 over the past three months. Analysts suggest that several factors are contributing to this volatility, including geopolitical tensions and economic indicators from both the Eurozone and Australia.
The euro (EUR) has faced pressure as a result of recent developments, particularly amidst the backdrop of ongoing trade tensions exacerbated by U.S. tariffs on EU goods. The dollar's strength has been noted in market updates, which has further contributed to the euro's softness. Experts remark that unless inflation in the Eurozone shows unexpected resilience, the euro may continue to struggle against its peers, including the Australian dollar (AUD). The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data holds particular importance—cooling inflation could lead to further weakness in the euro, while persistent price pressures might provide support.
On the other hand, the Australian dollar has shown mixed performance. Recent reports indicated a surge in Australian exports, initially lifting the AUD; however, sentiment quickly turned, outweighing these gains due to a broader market risk aversion. Economists are closely watching forthcoming retail sales figures from Australia to gauge consumer activity, which could influence the AUD's trajectory. As a commodity currency, the AUD remains sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly given its reliance on exports like iron ore and coal.
Additionally, oil prices have been on a downward trend, recently hitting 90-day lows around 61.29, which is 13.2% below the three-month average of 70.61. This decline in oil prices can also influence the AUD, particularly as Australia's economy is tied to energy exports. As forecasters note, a sustained period of lower oil prices could negatively impact both the AUD and the overall commodity market.
In summary, the outlook for the EUR/AUD exchange rate will hinges on upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical developments. Should the euro's CPI data reveal further inflation cooling, and if oil prices continue to decline, both currencies may experience further fluctuations. Thus, traders and businesses engaging in international transactions should remain vigilant and consider these factors when planning their currency exchanges.
