The current market bias for the EUR to NGN exchange rate is range-bound.
Key drivers include the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the prevailing inflation rates in both regions. The ECB has kept rates steady, with recent comments highlighting concerns that a stronger euro could further suppress inflation targets. Conversely, the Nigerian naira faces a challenging outlook with expectations of rising inflation projected at 37% in 2026, alongside increased pressure from global market uncertainties that could lead to further depreciation.
The expected trading range for EUR to NGN over the next few months is likely to remain stable, reflecting recent movements within a tight span. EUR to NGN has traded slightly above its three-month average, indicating limited volatility.
An upside risk could emerge from improved economic data in Germany, which could bolster the euro. A downside risk for the naira includes worsening economic conditions or inflationary pressures that could further weaken confidence in the currency.
