EUR/NOK Outlook:
EUR/NOK is currently bearish, as it is trading below its 90-day average and near recent lows. Weak Eurozone industrial data and volatile oil prices are contributing to this downward pressure.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining an accommodative stance, while Norges Bank is cautious about rate cuts, supporting a steadier NOK.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently high, which typically helps strengthen the NOK given Norway's reliance on oil exports.
• One macro factor: Recent poor industrial production figures in the Eurozone indicate economic weakness, which is likely to weigh on the euro's performance.
Range:
EUR/NOK is expected to drift within its recent range as it tests lower levels against the backdrop of current economic data.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive turnaround in Eurozone economic data could boost the euro and lead to a stronger EUR/NOK rate.
• Downside risk: Continued volatility in oil prices or worsening economic conditions in the Eurozone could further weaken the euro against the NOK.