The recent forecasts and market updates indicate a complex and evolving situation for the EUR to PLN exchange rate. The euro (EUR) has shown resilience, bolstered by positive German economic data and an overall weaker US dollar. Analysts noted that improvements in Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index supported a stronger euro, and any hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde could further strengthen the currency.
However, the EUR's rise is coupled with concerns, particularly about its rapidly increasing value against the US dollar, which has surged by 14% in 2025. ECB officials have voiced apprehensions that this appreciation may hurt export competitiveness within the Eurozone, creating potential drawbacks for the economy. Data indicating a burgeoning global status for the euro, alongside signs of increased foreign investment in euro-denominated assets, suggests that positive momentum may continue.
On the Polish side, the zloty (PLN) faces a more precarious outlook. Recent revisions from UBS foretell a weaker PLN, projecting an EUR/PLN rate of 4.25 through Q2 2026 due to global trade tensions and domestic political challenges. The National Bank of Poland’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate to 5.0% in July aimed at easing measures has heightened concerns about further depreciation of the zloty, especially given disappointing retail sales and industrial production data.
Current market trends show EUR to PLN hovering near 4.2478, reaching a 7-day low but remaining within its 3-month average trading range. The exchange rate has fluctuated within a stable 1.1% range from 4.2353 to 4.2833. Meanwhile, oil prices have recently rallied to near 68.47 USD, just below average levels, suggesting a volatile environment that could affect the euro, as energy prices directly influence economic stability in the Eurozone.
In summary, while the euro holds potential for appreciation backed by strong economic indicators and a favorable global stance, the Polish zloty grapples with political uncertainty and a shift towards dovish monetary policy. The interplay of these elements will be critical for those engaging in international transactions, as movements in the EUR/PLN rate are influenced by both external economic factors and domestic developments.
