EUR/QAR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate currently sits above its recent average without a strong driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank maintains interest rates amid an economy showing resilience, while the Qatar Central Bank's recent rate hikes aim to support stability.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently 8.6% above their 3-month average, suggesting stronger support for the QAR due to its peg to the USD.
• One macro factor: Eurozone inflation has fallen below the ECB's target, raising concerns about potential future rate cuts.
Range:
EUR/QAR is likely to drift within the recent range as it is currently above its average but lacks clear momentum.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sudden shift in ECB policy or an economic recovery that strengthens the euro could support its value against the QAR.
• Downside risk: A significant drop in oil prices or continued weakening of Eurozone economic performance may pressure the euro lower.