EUR/SEK Outlook:
Bearish, as the pair is currently below its 90-day average and near recent lows due to influences from both the Eurozone and Sweden.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank maintains higher interest rates than the Riksbank, which recently made cuts to its key interest rate.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices could further impact inflation and trade balances in Europe, influencing the euro's value negatively.
• One macro factor: Sweden's GDP growth is projected to accelerate, which is likely to benefit the SEK against the EUR.
Range:
Movement is likely to test the lower end of its recent range as conditions exert pressure on the euro.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A turnaround in Eurozone data could strengthen the euro against the krona.
• Downside risk: Further accommodative measures by the Riksbank could weaken the SEK, exacerbating the euro's challenges.