Recent forecasts for the EUR/TRY exchange rate indicate a complex interplay of factors affecting both currencies. The euro has shown some resilience but faced downward pressure due to cautious rhetoric from the European Central Bank (ECB). On December 18, 2025, the ECB maintained its interest rates, pointing to modest economic growth but emphasizing concerns about a robust euro potentially lowering inflation. Analysts expect this stance may keep the euro in check, particularly as economic indicators signal only modest improvements.
Concurrently, the Turkish lira is experiencing significant volatility driven by domestic political unrest and persistent high inflation. Following mass protests in March 2025, the lira depreciated sharply, leading the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to implement substantial interest rate cuts to stimulate growth. Despite these efforts, inflation surged to 33.29% in September, fueled by rising food prices and supply disruptions. The combination of these dynamics continues to challenge the stability of the lira, which is sensitive to both domestic political developments and broader economic conditions.
Market data shows the EUR to TRY exchange rate currently at 50.43, which is 2.6% above its three-month average of 49.15 and has traded within a stable range of 48.29 to 50.52. This indicates that while there are upward pressures on the euro, the lira's instability presents challenges for any sustained strength in the pair.
Additionally, fluctuations in oil prices can indirectly impact both currencies. The recent data shows oil prices at 60.89 USD, reflecting a 3.9% decrease from their three-month average. Given the reliance of Turkey on energy imports, such a decline could further complicate inflation and currency dynamics, as any significant rise in oil prices might exacerbate the already heightened inflationary pressures within Turkey.
As the eurozone grapples with geopolitical tensions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the potential for further euro depreciation exists, especially if the ECB maintains its cautious approach. Conversely, the lira may remain susceptible to both external influences, such as fluctuations in oil prices, and internal pressures from political developments and economic policy trends. Investors and businesses engaged in international transactions should remain vigilant as these factors are likely to shape the EUR/TRY landscape in the near term.
