The EUR/TWD exchange rate remains relatively stable, currently sitting at 34.16, which is close to its three-month average and has traded within a 5.1% range over the past few months. Analysts note that recent positive economic data from the Eurozone, particularly a record low unemployment rate in June and upward movement in German inflation figures, initially buoyed the euro. However, the market is closely watching upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data for July, with the euro potentially facing pressure if inflation shows signs of cooling.
Recent forecasts indicate that inflation in the Eurozone continues to influence the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy. Comments from ECB officials suggest a possible pause in interest rate increases, which could contribute to the euro's stability or even depreciation if economic growth slows further. Geopolitical tensions, especially related to trade dynamics with the US and UK, as well as ongoing challenges related to the energy crisis stemming from the Ukraine war, add to the uncertainty surrounding the euro.
In the context of Taiwan, the TWD may be affected by external pressures, such as the significant 32% reciprocal tariff on Taiwanese goods imposed by the US, which could impact the nation's technology sector. Additionally, heightened geopolitical tensions involving China pose risks for the Taiwan dollar.
Market dynamics are also influenced by the fluctuations in oil prices, with recent trends showing a surge in Brent Crude OIL/USD prices, currently at 72.53—6.7% above its three-month average. This increase may have indirect repercussions on both the euro and TWD, as energy costs play a critical role in shaping economic performance and inflation trajectories in the Eurozone as well as Taiwan.
Overall, the movement of the EUR/TWD exchange rate in the coming weeks will likely depend on the interplay of economic indicators, ECB monetary policy, and prevailing geopolitical conditions affecting both the Eurozone and Taiwan.