GBP/MXN Outlook: Likely to decrease, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, facing pressure from UK political uncertainty.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's recent dovish policy contrasts with the Bank of Mexico's stable stance, impacting GBP negatively.
• Risk/commodities: Since oil prices have been stable, the Mexican peso benefits from a favorable energy outlook, while the GBP struggles under political stress.
• One macro factor: Ongoing UK political jitters hinder GBP movements as investors await crucial GDP data.
Range: The GBP/MXN rate may continue to drift sideways within the recent 4% range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A strong rebound in UK economic data or resolution of political concerns could boost the GBP.
• Downside risk: Continued uncertainty in UK politics or further weakening of UK economic indicators could push the GBP lower.