GBP/PLN Outlook:
Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways due to the rate being below its recent average and near its recent lows.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's recent dovish stance, keeping interest rates steady, contrasts with Poland's monetary easing, putting pressure on the GBP.
• Risk/commodities: Recent declines in oil prices may limit demand for the Polish zloty, as Poland’s economy is sensitive to energy costs.
• One macro factor: The upcoming UK GDP figures could lead to volatility; however, a modest growth may not significantly strengthen the pound.
Range:
GBP/PLN is expected to hold within a stable range, as it trades close to its 3-month average with limited directional movement.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise uptick in UK GDP could raise GBP value against the PLN.
• Downside risk: Ongoing political uncertainties in both the UK and Poland could lead to further pressure on the zloty.