The recent performance of the British Pound (GBP) against the Qatari Riyal (QAR) has been influenced by a mix of domestic economic indicators and external market expectations. As of early September 2025, GBP to QAR is trading at 60-day highs near 4.9712, which is approximately 1.1% above its three-month average of 4.9172. This indicates a stable trading range, fluctuating 4.1% from 4.8048 to 5.0033.
The outlook for GBP remains cautious as anticipation builds surrounding the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decisions. Analysts point out that the recent UK labor market report revealed slight weakness without significantly altering expectations for a rate hold. Despite some forecasts from HSBC and Deutsche Bank suggesting potential rate cuts in the future due to persistent inflation, recent gains against the US dollar indicate a resilient GBP. The upcoming consumer price index release could further influence GBP’s strength ahead of the BoE's decision.
On the other hand, the QAR's stability is supported by Qatar's increasing international reserves and the government's efforts to diversify the economy. With Qatari international reserves rising by 3.5% to above $70 billion, economists believe this strong economic position will help bolster the QAR. Furthermore, the expected US Federal Reserve rate cuts have contributed to positive sentiment across Gulf markets, including Qatar.
Significantly, the QAR, largely influenced by oil prices due to its peg to the US dollar, faces volatility in oil markets with recent trading showing WTI crude oil near $68.47, just below its three-month average, amidst a 20.4% range from $65.50 to $78.85. The interplay between oil prices and monetary policy expectations, particularly regarding the QAR, is crucial for long-term forecasts.
Overall, recent trends suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for both currencies in the short term, influenced by domestic policy decisions and global economic factors. Investors should remain vigilant to shifts in economic data and central bank actions that may impact the GBP/QAR exchange rate in the coming weeks.
