GBP/THB Outlook:
Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is near its recent average and lacks a clear driving force.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's dovish policy contrasts with the Bank of Thailand’s efforts to manage a strengthening baht, which may create challenges for the GBP/THB rate.
• Risk/commodities: Recent oil prices have risen significantly, impacting the Thai economy; a stable oil price underpinning may support THB further.
• One macro factor: UK political uncertainty continues to suppress GBP, with concerns over leadership affecting investor confidence.
Range:
Expect GBP/THB to hold its position within the recent 3-month range, moving sideways as both currencies show mixed signals.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in UK economic data could boost GBP.
• Downside risk: Continued political instability or a more aggressive monetary response from the BoE could further weaken the pound.