GBP/VND Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is just above its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England has maintained interest rates, indicating a cautious approach compared to the Vietnamese central bank's more stable outlook.
• Risk/commodities: Volatility in global oil prices may impact the GBP, as the UK economy is sensitive to energy cost fluctuations.
• One macro factor: The upcoming UK GDP figures could influence the pound's direction, with modest growth expected but surprises possible.
Range:
The GBP/VND is likely to drift within its recent range, not testing extremes, as it currently shows stability just above the average.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected UK GDP report could boost the pound significantly.
• Downside risk: Increased political uncertainty or a downgrade in economic outlook could place downward pressure on the GBP.
