The current exchange rate between the Indian Rupee (INR) and the Thai Baht (THB) reflects several significant economic pressures affecting both currencies. As of now, the INR trades at 0.3463 THB, notably 4.2% below its three-month average of 0.3613. Analysts have observed that the INR has experienced heightened volatility in recent weeks, trading within an 8.1% range from 0.3456 to 0.3736.
The depreciation of the INR can be attributed to multiple factors. The US Federal Reserve's persistent higher interest rates are diverting global capital towards the US, creating capital outflows from India. Consequently, the demand for US dollars increases, adding to the rupee's pressure. Moreover, India has been facing a growing trade deficit, further exacerbated by the imposition of tariffs on Indian exports by the US, which has diminished investor confidence and reduced the rupee's value. Another concerning trend is a sharp increase in gold imports, reportedly rising by 200% in October 2025, which has compounded India’s current account deficit issues.
In contrast, the Thai Baht has shown resilience and strength against regional currencies, appreciating by 2.2% between December 1 and 16, 2025. The Thai central bank's proactive measures include increased scrutiny of dollar transactions, particularly in the gold sector, which aims to manage the baht's appreciation while simultaneously responding to sluggish economic indicators. Furthermore, the Bank of Thailand has recently cut interest rates to stimulate growth, indicating a willingness to support the economy through monetary policy adjustments.
Forecasters envision a future strengthening of the baht, projecting an average exchange rate of 31.8 THB per US dollar in 2026, driven largely by anticipated capital inflows and a robust current account surplus.
Additionally, it is essential to monitor the oil market as it affects both currencies due to India's import requirements and Thailand’s export dynamics. Recent data indicates that crude oil prices at $60.89 per barrel are 3.9% below the three-month average of $63.35, experiencing a volatile trading range of 18.8%. This volatility in oil prices could further influence the exchange dynamics between the INR and the THB in the coming months.
In summary, the INR faces considerable challenges leading to its depreciation, while the THB is poised for potential strengthening due to supportive domestic policies and external economic factors. Businesses and individuals engaged in international transactions should remain vigilant to these developments to optimize their currency exchanges.
