Recent forecasts and updates indicate a mixed outlook for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) against the Thai Baht (THB) as various economic variables come into play. As of December 22, 2025, the MYR has strengthened by over 8% throughout the year, bolstered by a weaker US dollar and strong economic indicators in Malaysia, which exceeded GDP growth expectations in Q3. Furthermore, Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate at 3.00% signals a commitment to economic stability. Notably, a new trade agreement with the United States has enhanced Malaysia's trade dynamics, contributing positively to the MYR's performance.
In contrast, the Thai Baht has shown strength within its regional context, appreciating 2.2% against several currencies in December, including the MYR, which has only risen by 1.1%. The Bank of Thailand is tightening regulations, particularly on dollar transactions, to manage the baht's appreciation amid concerns about its impact on economic growth. Additionally, the Monetary Policy Committee has recently cut the interest rate to 1.25%, aimed at stimulating the sluggish economy. Consensus among economists predicts an average value of 31.8 THB to the US dollar by 2026, influenced by capital inflows and a strong current account surplus.
Currently, the MYR to THB exchange rate stands at 7.6802, which is slightly below its three-month average of 7.7339. This figure has maintained a stable trading range of approximately 3.1% over the past three months, suggesting relatively low volatility in the immediate term. However, significant fluctuations in the oil market may influence the MYR's trajectory. Currently trading at $60.89 per barrel, oil is about 3.9% below its three-month average, illustrating the volatility inherent in oil prices, which is a critical factor for Malaysia as a key oil exporter.
Looking ahead, market analysts suggest that while the MYR has demonstrated resilience, the stronger THB influenced by recent Thai monetary policy adjustments may continue to challenge its upward momentum. Therefore, individuals and businesses engaging in currency exchanges should remain attuned to both domestic and international influences affecting these currencies.
