The recent forecasts for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) to Vietnamese Đồng (VND) exchange rate reflect a complex interplay of factors affecting both currencies, especially in light of ongoing economic developments.
Analysts project that the MYR may continue to strengthen against the VND due to a series of supportive factors for the Ringgit. The U.S. Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle in September 2025 has weakened the U.S. dollar overall, which is historically beneficial for emerging market currencies, including the MYR. This shift is complemented by Malaysia's robust economic resilience, characterized by stable GDP growth and considerable foreign direct investment inflows, bolstering investor confidence. Additionally, Malaysia's recent trade surplus of MYR 16.1 billion, fueled by increased exports and diversification strategies into emerging markets, further supports the MYR's outlook. Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate at 3.00% demonstrates a careful monetary policy approach amid uncertain external factors, which can enhance currency stability.
Conversely, the VND faces challenges amidst significant depreciation trends against major currencies and expectations of a 3% decline against the U.S. dollar in 2025. The depreciation is influenced by a strong dollar, heightened U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese exports, and economic pressures that may force Vietnam to consider further currency depreciation to retain export competitiveness. Although the Federal Reserve's rate cut offers some potential stabilization for the VND, these domestic and global pressures remain significant.
Currently, the MYR to VND exchange rate is approximately 6269, slightly above its 3-month average and within a stable trading range of 6130 to 6297. Meanwhile, oil prices have demonstrated volatility, presently trading at $65.07 per barrel, which is 1.7% below the three-month average. Given Malaysia's status as an oil exporter, fluctuations in oil prices can have a direct impact on the MYR's performance.
Overall, while prospects seem favorable for the MYR in the short term, the VND's depreciation trends and external pressures indicate a cautious outlook for both currencies. There remains potential for the MYR to gain further against the VND, especially if present economic conditions persist.
