NZD/ZAR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways due to its position near the 90-day average and within the recent range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's signals of interest rate cuts contrast with the South African Reserve Bank's high rates, creating a competitive edge for the ZAR.
• Risk/commodities: Rising global oil prices may boost the ZAR due to its supportive effect on commodity exports, while the NZD faces pressures from fluctuating dairy market trends.
• One macro factor: Ongoing global trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. and China, could hinder NZD performance by adding uncertainty to New Zealand’s export outlook.
Range:
Expect the NZD/ZAR to likely drift within its recent trading range, given current conditions.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: An unexpected rebound in commodity prices could strengthen the NZD as export revenue rises.
• Downside risk: Further deterioration in labor market conditions in New Zealand may weaken the NZD against the ZAR.