PLN/USD Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average without a clear driving force.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The National Bank of Poland has cut interest rates to stimulate growth, while the Federal Reserve has kept rates steady, creating an advantage for the PLN.
- Risk/commodities: Recent volatility in global oil prices has impacted the USD, weighing on investor confidence and affecting demand for the greenback.
- Political developments: Uncertainty following the election of Poland's new president may hinder PLN strength, as markets await clarity on future reforms.
Range:
Expect PLN/USD to drift within its recent range, with potential testing of both upper and lower extremes.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: If upcoming U.S. jobless claims show significant improvement, it could lift the USD and shift the rate.
- Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions could further spur the shift away from USD and increase demand for other currencies, including the PLN.
