Recent forecasts for the PLN to USD exchange rate indicate a complex interplay of factors influencing both currencies. Analysts note that the US dollar has been weakening as the market anticipates potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, following a notable decline in US inflation from 3% to 2.7% in November. This drop is prompting expectations for a more dovish monetary policy, which, coupled with soft economic data and a stable equity market, reinforces a bearish outlook for the USD.
Meanwhile, the Polish zloty has shown resilience, trading at 90-day highs near 0.2794, which is 1.7% above its three-month average of 0.2747. The National Bank of Poland's recent interest rate cut to 5.25% and a cooling inflation rate, which stood at 2.4% in November, contribute positively to the PLN's performance. UBS forecasts a potential stabilization of the EUR/PLN exchange rate around 4.25, reflecting a more favorable sentiment toward the zloty.
The expectations of further easing from the Fed juxtaposed with Poland's controlled inflation and cautious monetary easing may lead to the PLN strengthening against the USD. The zloty’s performance appears to be bolstered by a combination of favorable economic indicators and a global context shifting towards risk-on sentiment, which tends to pressure safe-haven currencies like the USD.
Experts suggest that the ongoing evolution of US economic data—particularly around inflation and consumer sentiment—will be critical in shaping the PLN to USD exchange rate in the near term. Should US data reflect continued economic softness, an ongoing decline in the USD could be expected, allowing the PLN to appreciate further. Conversely, any potential signs of resilience in US economic indicators might lend temporary support to the dollar, complicating the outlook for the zloty. Overall, developments in both monetary policy and economic conditions will remain pivotal in dictating future exchange rate movements.
