The Polish Zloty (PLN) has experienced notable fluctuations in recent months due to a combination of monetary policy adjustments, inflation trends, political developments, and economic performance. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) made a significant move in June 2025 by reducing its benchmark interest rate to 5.0%, the first cut in 18 months, as inflation softened and concerns over economic growth emerged. Analysts suggest that the declining annual inflation, which fell to 4.2% in April, could lead to additional rate cuts, further impacting the zloty's performance.
Political changes, notably the election of President Karol Nawrocki, have introduced a more Eurosceptic stance, sparking concerns about Poland's future relationship with the European Union and its overall economic policies. The effects of these developments are mirrored in the zloty's exchange rates; for example, the PLN to USD is trading around 0.2753, slightly above its 3-month average of 0.2735, indicating a stable range with the currency trading between 0.2660 to 0.2777.
The PLN to EUR is hovering near its 3-month average at 0.2352, reflecting stability within a narrow range of 1.2%. Meanwhile, the PLN to GBP is reaching 30-day highs near 0.2042, surpassing its average of 0.2026, as well as the PLN to JPY, which stands at around 40.85, also at a 30-day high and showing a healthy outlook against its 3-month average.
UBS has recently revised its EUR/PLN forecast to 4.25 through Q2 2026, highlighting the influence of global trade tensions and domestic political challenges on the zloty's trajectory. Overall, recent economic performance indicates GDP growth of 3.2% in Q1 2025, bolstering the zloty amid ongoing global uncertainties. Markets will continue to monitor these factors closely as they influence ongoing currency trends.
