RUB/USD Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the Ruble is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Russian Central Bank's monetary policy remains influenced by sanctions and volatility, while the Federal Reserve has stabilized rates, adding pressure on the Ruble.
• Risk/commodities: Declining oil prices have reduced Russia's export revenue, contributing to the Ruble's weaker position.
• One macro factor: Increased geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. trade policies, are adversely affecting the demand for the USD.
Range:
The RUB/USD pair is likely to test extremes given the recent volatility in its 3-month range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A resurgence in global oil prices could bolster the Ruble against the USD.
• Downside risk: Further US sanctions or geopolitical tensions could intensify selling pressure on the Ruble.
