The USD to RUB exchange rate is currently bearish.
Several factors are influencing this outlook. The Federal Reserve is expected to implement further interest rate cuts, which could weaken the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia is set to reduce its key interest rate from 17.5% to between 12.0% and 13.0% by 2026, likely to stabilize the ruble. Additionally, forecasts suggest that inflation in Russia may decrease to around 4.0% next year, potentially providing further support for the ruble.
In the near term, the exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within a range influenced by both economic policies and commodity prices. Recent USD to RUB market data shows that the rate at 78.50 sits below its 3-month average of 79.92, trading within a 9.2% range, while oil prices have also shown volatility, trading around 2.5% below their 3-month average.
An upside risk may come from recovering oil prices, which typically bolster the RUB, while a downside risk could arise from unexpected shifts in US monetary policy that further weaken the dollar.
