The USD to RUB exchange rate has a bearish bias due to a combination of factors.
Recent U.S. inflation data showed a drop from 3% to 2.7%, impacting expectations for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to be implemented by mid-2026. This shift may weaken the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia is maintaining a high key interest rate at 17.5% for 2024, with projections to reduce it to 12.0–13.0% by 2026, which aims to support the ruble.
The current price of USD to RUB is near recent highs, reflecting volatility within a 9.2% range. In the near term, the exchange rate is expected to remain range-bound, trading within its current levels.
An upside risk for the ruble could come from rebounding oil prices, given the ruble's sensitivity to these movements. Conversely, any unexpected shift in global economic sentiment towards the U.S. or additional Federal Reserve easing could further pressure the dollar down against the ruble.
