SGD/CHF Outlook:
The SGD/CHF outlook is slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and mid-range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Monetary Authority of Singapore has adjusted policy to be more accommodative, while the Swiss National Bank may consider negative interest rates to manage a strong CHF.
- Risk/commodities: Global uncertainties are fueling demand for the CHF as a safe haven, impacting the SGD negatively due to export challenges.
- One macro factor: The recent increase in US tariffs on goods imported from Singapore could further stretch the economy, impacting SGD performance.
Range:
The SGD/CHF is expected to hold within its recent stable range, with slight fluctuations around its current level.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A surge in Singapore's economic growth or a reversal in US trade policies could strengthen the SGD.
- Downside risk: Continued strong demand for the CHF as a safe haven during geopolitical tensions could place further pressure on the SGD.
