The exchange rate outlook for the Singapore Dollar (SGD) against the Chinese Yuan (CNY) reflects a mixture of domestic monetary policy adjustments, ongoing global trade tensions, and overall economic conditions in both countries. As of December 2025, recent analyses have indicated that SGD is trading at 5.4565 CNY, slightly below its three-month average, which has seen a stable range from 5.4355 to 5.5276.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has continued to ease its monetary policy since January 2025, reducing the appreciation rate of the S$NEER band in response to disappointing inflation and external economic pressures. This shift in policy, aimed at stimulating economic growth, is likely to exert downward pressure on the SGD as lower interest rates may reduce the currency's attractiveness to investors. Analysts suggest that unless there are significant improvements in inflation or economic indicators, the SGD could remain subdued against the CNY in the near term.
Conversely, the CNY has shown resilience, bolstered by a significant trade surplus and robust economic growth. The International Monetary Fund's upgrade of China's GDP growth forecast to 5.0% reflects positive sentiment about China’s economic recovery, aided by government stimulus measures and a rebound in exports. This strengthened outlook contributes to the CNY's appreciation, particularly against currencies like the SGD.
Additionally, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been proactive in managing the yuan, influencing its value through monetary policy interventions aimed at stabilizing the currency amidst trade tensions with the U.S. The recent market sentiment indicates an expected interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could further benefit the CNY against the USD and subsequently against the SGD.
Overall, while the SGD may experience pressure from domestic policy adjustments, the CNY is likely to continue benefiting from improved economic indicators and a favorable trade balance. Analysts predict a cautious approach for SGD against CNY, with deviations primarily driven by significant changes in economic conditions or geopolitical developments impacting trade relationships. As global dynamics unfold, monitoring these economic indicators and monetary policies will be crucial for businesses and individuals engaged in international transactions.
