USD/THB Outlook:
Bearish, as the pair is below its 90-day average and near recent lows, influenced by multiple economic factors.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while the Bank of Thailand intervened to stabilize the baht, creating competitive pressure.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently at highs, which can increase Thailand's import costs and negatively impact the baht.
• One macro factor: Thai businessmen express concerns that the strong baht is harming exports and could pressure the central bank for a policy adjustment.
Range:
Expect USD/THB to hold steady within its recent range as both currencies encounter substantial pressure.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected US jobs report could bolster USD demand.
• Downside risk: Further geopolitical tensions impacting US trade policies may weaken the USD further.