USD to EUR Forecast & Outlook
13 May 2026 • 00:24 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
- Expected range: N/A
- Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
- 3-month trend: 🟢 Uptrend
USD/EUR is trading close to the 90-day average, holding near recent lows within a narrow range. The pair is supported by risk-off conditions and safe-haven flows. Over the next few sessions, the pair may remain supported, but further declines could be limited if risk sentiment stabilizes.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Europe may find euro conversions more favourable than recent levels.
- Travellers: buying euros could see limited improvement in exchange rates if risk sentiment persists.
- Businesses: paying euro invoices might face less favourable conditions if the pair weakens further.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve remains cautious on inflation, keeping US yields near recent levels while European yields remain subdued.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off sentiment continues to support the US dollar as a safe haven.
- Global factors: Geopolitical tensions, notably in the Strait of Hormuz, contribute to euro pressure and support the dollar.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: A decrease in risk aversion could weaken the USD, making euro conversions less favourable.
- Downside risk: A sharper escalation in geopolitical tensions or a surprise policy easing from the Fed could push USD/EUR lower.
BER suggests shopping around for the lowest margin provider to help reduce overall transfer costs and comparing FX providers may help offset less favourable exchange conditions.