USD/TRY Outlook:
Likely to increase, as the rate is above its recent average and near recent highs, supported by currency policy decisions.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's interest rate hold contrasts with the Central Bank of Turkey's recent cuts, maintaining a competitive edge for the USD.
• Risk/commodities: Recent geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty, leading to a lower risk appetite for U.S. assets, which can impact the USD negatively.
• One macro factor: Fitch Ratings' positive outlook on Turkey, due to increasing foreign exchange reserves, may provide some support for the TRY.
Range:
Expect USD/TRY to hold within its recent 3-month range, maintaining its elevated position but susceptible to volatility.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive surprise in upcoming U.S. employment data could strengthen the USD further.
• Downside risk: Additional rate cuts from the Central Bank of Turkey or rising inflation could weaken the TRY.