The USD to VND exchange rate has recently been influenced by a confluence of macroeconomic factors and geopolitical developments. Economists note that the US dollar has plunged amid rising concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve. The confirmation of Stephen Miran to the Fed’s board, a nominee aligned with the current presidential administration, combined with expectations for an imminent interest rate cut, has led to a significant decline in the dollar's value.
Market analysts anticipate that upcoming inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, could further influence the Fed's interest rate trajectory, potentially leading to additional downward pressure on the USD. Furthermore, protracted US-China trade tensions and ongoing global dedollarization efforts are shifting perceptions about the dollar’s stability as a reserve currency, thus impacting its exchange rate.
On the Vietnamese side, the VND faces challenges primarily due to external pressures such as the hefty tariffs imposed on Vietnamese exports by the US, which have led to expectations of further depreciation. The UOB has projected the VND could weaken to 25,800 per USD in Q2 and 26,000 by Q3 in 2025. Additionally, regulations established in September 2025 may incentivize domestic economic activity, presenting a mixed bag of potential outcomes for the VND.
Current trading data indicates that the USD to VND rate stands at 26,382, maintaining a position just 0.6% above its three-month average. The currency pair has demonstrated stability within a narrow range, reflecting modest volatility recently. Analysts suggest that any significant moves in this exchange rate will likely depend on the resolution of trade tensions and ongoing monetary policy developments in the US.
In essence, the USD's bearish trends coupled with the external pressures faced by the VND are creating a complex interplay in exchange rate forecasts. Stakeholders should remain vigilant of updates regarding interest rates and trade policy as these will likely dictate the near-term landscape for USD to VND exchanges.
