The USD to VND exchange rate has recently seen some fluctuations, currently hovering around 26,292 VND, which is near its 90-day lows. This level is just below the three-month average, indicating a relatively stable range of 0.5% between 26,292 and 26,427 VND. Experts are closely observing various economic indicators that may influence this rate moving forward.
Recent forecasts have highlighted a notable weakening of the US dollar (USD) amid expectations of more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are anticipated to start in 2026. A soft consumer price index print showing inflation dropping from 3% to 2.7% in November has reinforced this sentiment, leading analysts to predict a broader softening of the USD as markets adjust their expectations for future monetary policy. This dovish outlook is likely to exert downward pressure on the dollar, potentially benefiting the Vietnamese đồng (VND).
On the Vietnamese side, the VND is also facing challenges. Analysts project an approximate 3% depreciation against the USD in 2025, largely influenced by the strength of the dollar and broader global economic trends. Additional factors such as the severe flooding in Northern Vietnam and new regulatory requirements for large transactions may also impact VND's stability and exchange rate against the USD.
Despite the anticipated depreciation, the VND's reaction to USD weakness may not be straightforward. Analysts suggest that the combination of increased domestic regulatory measures regarding cryptocurrency and the ongoing recovery from recent natural disasters will be crucial in determining the VND's value. As the US and Vietnamese economic landscapes evolve, stakeholders should remain attentive to upcoming economic data releases and regulatory developments that could sway the USD to VND exchange rate.
