The current market bias for the USD to ILS exchange rate is bearish.
Recent interest rate differential signals a weakening USD as the Federal Reserve plans multiple rate cuts through mid-2026. Meanwhile, the Israeli New Shekel is supported by a strong economic outlook, with projected GDP growth of 4.7% for 2026, which boosts confidence and strengthens the shekel against the dollar. The improved geopolitical situation following the Gaza ceasefire has also reduced risk premiums associated with the ILS.
In the near term, trading for the USD to ILS is expected to remain in a stable range, reflecting the current 90-day lows near 3.1807. Factors influencing potential shifts include the possibility of rising global commodity prices, which could favor the USD, as well as deteriorating US economic data that may further weaken the dollar against the shekel.

