USD/QAR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is near its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, which could weaken the USD's appeal compared to the QAR.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are trading significantly above their average, which tends to support the QAR due to Qatar's oil-based economy.
• One macro factor: Geopolitical tensions affecting U.S. trade policies could undermine the dollar's strength, reflecting a trend towards de-dollarization.
Range:
USD/QAR is likely to hold within its recent range, as the current trading position is stable without significant price catalysts.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising improvement in U.S. jobs data could strengthen the USD.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions or further signs of weakness in U.S. retail sales could pressure the USD lower.
