The exchange rate forecast for the USD to UAH has been shaped by a combination of developments in both the United States and Ukraine. Analysts note that the US dollar (USD) strengthened recently, buoyed by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that suggest a more hawkish stance. This firmness has led to a slight reduction in expectations for a December rate cut, potentially supporting further gains for the USD if economic indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI, continue to show improvement.
In contrast, the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) is under pressure from various economic factors. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has opted to keep its key policy rate at 15.5%, aiming to stabilize the foreign exchange market amid economic challenges. Furthermore, experts from Dragon Capital anticipate a controlled depreciation of the UAH, primarily due to declining inflation rates and the NBU's efforts to manage economic instability. Projections from the Ukrainian government indicate a gradual weakening of the UAH, with estimates suggesting the currency could reach 44.8 UAH per USD by the end of 2026.
Recent trading data shows the USD to UAH exchange rate hovering near 41.80, slightly above its three-month average of 41.46. This stability indicates limited volatility, with the rate fluctuating within a narrow 3.1% range. The forthcoming visit of the IMF Chief to Ukraine adds another layer of uncertainty as it seeks to address economic support through new lending arrangements, which could lend stability if successfully implemented.
Overall, while the USD appears resilient due to favorable economic signals in the U.S. and the Fed's stance, the UAH faces challenges that could lead to gradual depreciation. Market participants should keep a close eye on upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments influencing these currencies.
