The current market bias for the USD to VND exchange rate is bearish.
Several key drivers are influencing this trend. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement multiple rate cuts by mid-2026, which may further weaken the USD. Meanwhile, improving global economic growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, is expected to lift demand for the VND, as Vietnam aims for ambitious GDP growth targets. Additionally, inflation projections for Vietnam are set to remain stable, enhancing investor confidence in the VND.
In the near term, the USD to VND exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within a defined range, reflecting recent stability around 26,291, which is near its 90-day lows. This suggests a limited potential for significant exchange rate movements in the coming months.
Upside risks could arise from a rebound in US economic sentiment, potentially supporting the USD. On the downside, a failure to meet economic targets in Vietnam could lead to downward pressure on the VND.
