USD/RUB Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is currently near recent highs but lacks a clear driving force.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts, allowing the USD to maintain some strength amid a mixed economic outlook.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which can support the RUB due to its reliance on oil exports for revenue.
• One macro factor: New sanctions on Russian financial institutions have introduced volatility in the RUB, impacting its stability against the USD.
Range:
The USD/RUB is likely to hold within its recent 3-month range, showing some resistance to moving beyond current levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger US jobs report could bolster the USD and push the rate higher.
• Downside risk: Further sanctions or deteriorating international relations may lead to increased RUB depreciation against the USD.
