The exchange rate forecast for the AUD to MYR indicates a complex interplay of global economic factors, geopolitical tensions, and local economic developments.
As of late September 2023, the Australian dollar (AUD) has started to rebound, mainly driven by a recovery in market risk appetite following geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East. Analysts noted that while tensions increased after Israel's actions against Iran, concerns about oil supply stability helped bolster the AUD. However, the potential for future regional escalation remains a critical risk that could negatively affect AUD performance.
In contrast, the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) faces pressures due to U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 24% tariff on imports from Malaysia. This move has exacerbated tensions in global trade and dampened investor sentiment toward emerging Asian currencies, including the MYR. Analysts have reported that this development, along with a general decline in regional currencies, has created a challenging outlook for the MYR. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's efforts to navigate these tariffs may provide some strategic responses, but immediate impacts on the MYR are likely to remain negative.
Recent data points reveal that the AUD/MYR exchange rate at 2.7629 is near its 3-month average, reflecting relatively stable trading within a range of 2.6652 to 2.8269. This stability in the AUD is particularly notable given the ongoing volatility in commodity prices. With oil prices significantly increasing—currently around $73.23, 9.3% above the 3-month average of $67.02—oil-exporting nations like Australia may see some support for their currencies if these trends continue. However, fluctuations in oil prices could also generate mixed effects on the AUD in light of its close ties to commodity markets.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has also played a role in shaping the AUD’s trajectory, having recently reduced interest rates, contributing to its depreciation. In view of these developments, many economists suggest that the AUD may face continued pressure from both external shocks and internal economic policies. For the MYR, navigating the tariff landscape and mitigating external risks will be essential for stability.
Investors and businesses engaging in international transactions should keep a close eye on these developments, as shifts in both the AUD and MYR could affect costs and strategy in trading and investment decisions.