Forecasts for AUD to PHP
The exchange rate between the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Philippine peso (PHP) is currently under pressure, reflecting a mix of domestic and global economic factors. Recent forecasts indicate that the AUD has struggled to maintain its value amidst concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions, notably the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Australian imports. This development has fostered a risk-averse atmosphere, dampening the allure of the AUD, which is typically considered a risk-sensitive currency.
Markets reacted positively to a stronger-than-expected inflation report from Australia, initially propelling the AUD as it reduced expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). However, this momentum proved short-lived as negative sentiment quickly overshadowed the positive data. Analysts noted that upcoming trade figures from Australia could further influence the currency's performance, with a significant decline in export growth anticipated for March, potentially exerting downward pressure on the AUD.
On the other side, the PHP faces challenges as well. Economic forecasts reveal concerns about the Philippine peso’s stability due to weakening external balances and an overvalued currency. Analysts at ABN Amro predict that the peso is likely to depreciate against the U.S. dollar in the coming years. Political uncertainty ahead of the mid-term elections in the Philippines, exacerbated by recent upheavals including the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte, adds another layer of risk for the peso.
Recent data shows the AUD to PHP exchange rate trading near its 14-day lows at approximately 35.68, which is 1.2% below its three-month average of 36.12. The pair has remained relatively stable within a range of 8.0%, from 34.29 to 37.03, indicating a cautious trading environment as the broader implications of global trade policies loom large for both currencies.
In summary, while the AUD may find some support from domestic economic data in the short term, its trajectory will heavily rely on external geopolitical developments and trade relationships. Simultaneously, the PHP's outlook appears to be clouded by both internal political uncertainties and weak economic fundamentals. Currency exchange participants should remain vigilant to these dynamic factors that may influence their international transactions in the near term.
