Exchange Rate Forecast: CAD to THB
The Canadian dollar (CAD) has recently experienced mixed performance against the Thai baht (THB), trading at approximately 23.89. This level aligns with its three-month average and suggests stability in the currency pair, despite an observable 5.2% fluctuation range from 23.26 to 24.46 during this period.
Recent forecasts indicate that the CAD's trajectory will heavily depend on oil price dynamics. Following a brief retreat, oil prices remain elevated, trading around $73.23, which is 9.3% above the three-month average of $67.02. Analysts note that as a major oil exporter, Canada’s economic health and, consequently, the strength of the CAD are closely linked to these oil price movements. Should crude prices stabilize or increase, it is expected that the ‘loonie’ could appreciate against the THB.
Political and economic factors are also at play. The Canadian dollar is facing uncertainty due to a recent leadership change with Mark Carney replacing Justin Trudeau, and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. heightened by tariffs. Although a pause in interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in April 2025 has provided some support to the CAD, these geopolitical uncertainties lead analysts to take a cautious stance on potential upside. The Bank of Canada's current benchmark rate remains at 2.75%, which is seen as stabilizing but does not eliminate concerns regarding trade-related impacts on the currency.
On the other hand, the Thai baht's recent weakness has been attributed to increasing trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., which imposed reciprocal tariffs that adversely affect Thailand's export outlook. As regional currencies like the THB respond to global market conditions, uncertainty remains.
Considering the correlation between the CAD and oil prices, along with geopolitical factors, analysts suggest that the outlook for the CAD/THB exchange rate will hinge on upcoming developments in oil markets and any shifts in trade policy affecting the broader economic landscape. In summary, while stability reflected in the CAD/THB exchange rate offers a current sense of balance, traders should remain vigilant for external signals that may prompt volatility in this currency pair.