CAD/THB Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has kept its interest rate steady while the Bank of Thailand is tightening regulations, creating divergence that could affect the CAD positively.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently elevated, trading significantly above average, supporting the Canadian dollar since Canada is a large oil exporter.
- One macro factor: The tightening of regulations by the Bank of Thailand may lead to increased currency volatility, impacting the Thai baht's performance.
Range:
Expect the CAD/THB to hold within its recent range, showing limited movement.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A sharp increase in oil prices could further bolster the Canadian dollar.
- Downside risk: Increased regulatory actions or economic slowdown in Thailand could strengthen the baht against the CAD.