CAD/USD Outlook:
Bullish, as the CAD is currently above its recent average and near 3-month highs, supported by rising oil prices.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has maintained steady interest rates while the Federal Reserve recently ended a series of rate cuts, creating a favorable environment for the CAD.
• Risk/commodities: Recent gains in oil prices, currently well above their average, bolster the CAD as Canada is a major oil exporter.
• One macro factor: Weak US retail sales data raised concerns about consumer spending, putting additional pressure on the USD.
Range:
The CAD/USD is likely to drift within the stable zone of its recent trading range, with potential tests towards the upper end due to positive oil momentum.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected Canadian employment data could further enhance the CAD's position.
• Downside risk: A surprise in US job figures that points to economic resilience could strengthen the USD and weigh on the CAD.