CHF/SGD Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its 90-day average, but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is considering negative interest rates amid a strong Swiss franc, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has shifted towards a more accommodative stance.
- Risk/commodities: Global uncertainties continue to encourage safe-haven flows into the Swiss franc, supporting its value despite challenges to Swiss exports.
- One macro factor: The recent US tariffs on Swiss exports pose significant risks to the Swiss economy, pressuring the franc against the Singapore dollar.
Range:
Expect CHF/SGD to hold within its recent trading range, given current stability.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A reversal of US tariffs on Swiss goods could improve the outlook for the CHF.
- Downside risk: Continued negative developments in global economic stability may weaken the franc against the SGD.