Recent forecasts and currency market updates for the CHF to TRY exchange rate indicate an environment of significant tension and volatility influenced by both Swiss and Turkish economic factors.
As of December 2025, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a zero interest rate, reflecting a cautious approach amid global trade tensions and very low inflation rates, which remain stagnant at 0.2%. Analysts have noted that further easing measures may be on the table if deflationary pressures persist. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted external risks such as geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties that could impact the stability of the Swiss economy and, by extension, the CHF. Additionally, potential improvements in US trade relations, with tariffs on Swiss exports expected to decline significantly, could support the currency in the longer term.
In Turkey, the situation is markedly different. The Turkish lira has faced heightened volatility stemming from mass protests and political uncertainty, particularly after the arrest of the Istanbul Mayor. This unrest contributed to a significant depreciation of the TRY. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has responded with interest rate cuts aimed at spurring economic growth, but inflation has surged to an alarming 33.29%, driven by rising food prices and agricultural disruptions. This inflation, alongside currency interventions to stabilize the lira, has created a challenging environment for the TRY.
The recent market data shows the CHF trading at 54.28 TRY, which is notably 2.8% above its three-month average of 52.82, highlighting a relatively stable range from 51.78 to 54.37. Analysts suggest that while current pressures exist, fluctuations in both currencies rooted in domestic and international factors will continue to affect the CHF/TRY exchange rate.
In summary, given the complex interplay of Swiss economic challenges and Turkish political instability, forecasters urge caution for businesses and individuals engaging in transactions involving CHF and TRY. Monitoring these developments is essential for navigating future currency exchanges effectively.
