The recent exchange rate forecasts for the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the Turkish Lira (TRY) reflect significant challenges for the CHF stemming from geopolitical tensions and economic pressures, particularly due to the new U.S. tariffs that have negatively impacted Swiss exports. Analysts note that the imposition of a 39% tariff by the U.S. in August 2025 has inflicted a substantial blow to Swiss companies, leading to a reported 5.3% decline in exports in the second quarter of 2025. This situation has prompted discussions among Swiss firms regarding possible relocation to the U.S. to mitigate these costs, potentially further straining the Swiss economy.
Additionally, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has reported significant losses, totaling 15.3 billion francs in the first half of 2025, largely impacted by the weakening of the U.S. dollar. Coupled with a trimmed growth forecast of 1.3% for Switzerland from the International Monetary Fund, the economic outlook remains subdued. The SNB's decision to cut interest rates to zero in June 2025, aimed at combating low inflation and a robust franc, further highlights the challenges the Swiss economy faces.
On the other side, Turkey's economic landscape presents its own complexities. With inflation projected at 28.5% for 2025, the Turkish central bank is now expected to implement smaller interest rate cuts than previously anticipated, as noted by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. The termination of the FX-protected deposit scheme also poses risks, as it is estimated to have cost the government around $60 billion. Political instability, particularly the recent arrest of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu, has spurred protests and shaken investor confidence, adding to the pressure on the Turkish Lira.
In terms of market performance, currently, the CHF to TRY exchange rate stands at 51.87, representing a 2.9% increase above its three-month average of 50.41. This rate has fluctuated within a range of 48.26 to 52.01, suggesting a level of relative stability despite the surrounding economic turmoil.
Overall, the CHF remains influenced by external factors such as tariffs and domestic economic conditions, while the TRY is navigating high inflation and political challenges. Analysts suggest that individuals and businesses involved in international transactions should closely monitor these developments as they may impact future exchange rate movements.
