Recent developments indicate a complex outlook for the CHF to TRY exchange rate. On the Swiss franc side, analysts suggest the currency is reacting to strong deflationary pressures and significant foreign currency interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Following the imposition of a 39% tariff on Swiss exports by the U.S. in July 2025, the CHF saw appreciation, which has raised concerns about the stability of Switzerland's export-driven economy. The SNB's intervention of 5.06 billion CHF in Q2 2025, the largest in three years, demonstrates a proactive stance to manage this currency strength and its economic implications. Furthermore, economists forecast that the SNB will maintain interest rates at 0.00% through 2026 due to stable inflation, which could limit significant CHF appreciation in the immediate future.
On the Turkish lira side, the recent termination of Turkey's foreign exchange-protected deposit scheme has raised concerns about currency stability. This move, coupled with a sharp rise in inflation to 33.3% in September, poses risks to the lira. While the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has adjusted Turkey's GDP growth forecast to 3.1% amidst improved domestic conditions, these inflationary pressures could challenge the central bank's monetary policy effectiveness. The newly signed $4.9 billion currency swap agreement with the UAE may provide temporary relief but does not address underlying issues affecting the lira.
Currently, the CHF/TRY exchange rate is reported at 52.21, which is near a 14-day low and only 1% above the 3-month average of 51.71. This indicates a relatively stable trading range of 5.5% from 50.10 to 52.88 over recent months. Analysts may suggest that the geopolitical and economic conditions surrounding both currencies warrant close attention. The ongoing developments will likely influence currency dynamics, impacting decisions for businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions.
