EUR/MXN Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is currently below its recent average and near recent lows.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is holding interest rates steady while the Bank of Mexico has recently cut rates, making the peso more attractive.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above their average, which may support the MXN due to Mexico's oil exports.
• One macro factor: Economic stability in Mexico is supported by Mexico's nearshoring trend, boosting foreign investment and demand for the peso.
Range:
EUR/MXN is likely to drift within its recent range, as it holds a relatively stable position below the average.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sudden increase in Eurozone economic data could lift the euro.
• Downside risk: Further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Mexico could weaken the peso and push the rate lower.