EUR/RUB Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is just above its recent average in a stable range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank has maintained interest rates, keeping the euro supported; meanwhile, the Bank of Russia has allowed the ruble to adjust in response to various pressures.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices currently at highs, above their three-month average, the ruble could face downward pressure due to reduced export revenues impacting its value.
• One macro factor: New U.S. sanctions on Russian financial institutions have introduced volatility in the ruble's exchange rate, affecting overall investor confidence.
Range:
The EUR/RUB is likely to drift within its recent 3-month range as market conditions appear stable.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant increase in eurozone economic data could support the euro's strength.
• Downside risk: Further sanctions or a significant drop in oil prices could negatively impact the ruble.