EUR/ZAR Outlook:
Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows without a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining rates amid inflation concerns, while the South African Reserve Bank's high rates support the rand.
• Risk/commodities: The rand benefits from strong demand for commodities like gold and platinum, improving foreign earnings.
• One macro factor: Recent high global oil prices could add pressure on the euro due to inflation and energy costs affecting Eurozone economic recovery.
Range:
The EUR/ZAR is likely to drift within the recent range as it has been stable, without testing extremes in the short term.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in Eurozone economic data could boost the euro.
• Downside risk: A sharp decline in commodity prices might weaken the rand against the euro.