The exchange rate forecast for the GBP to CLP remains cautious as recent developments suggest volatility ahead. The British pound is currently under pressure due to expectations surrounding a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), with analysts from Barclays and Goldman Sachs indicating that markets may be underestimating the likelihood of such a move. Such a cut could weigh heavily on the pound, particularly if realized soon. Currently, the GBP is trading around 1238 CLP, which is approximately 3.8% below its three-month average of 1287 CLP, within a relatively stable range of 1235 to 1315 CLP.
Several macroeconomic factors could further influence the pound's performance. The upcoming UK budget announcement set for November 26, which includes tax increases and spending cuts, aims to address fiscal concerns and may impact market sentiment. Additionally, a slight economic growth of 0.1% in August and a warning from BoE policymaker Alan Taylor about a potential “bumpy landing” due to falling inflation has raised speculation about further rate adjustments in the future.
On the other hand, the Chilean peso faces its own challenges, particularly from the Central Bank of Chile’s cautious stance on maintaining the policy interest rate at 5% since January 2025, amidst global economic uncertainties. Inflation has eased to 4.4%, but the impact of U.S. tariffs on copper imports could affect the peso's outlook, considering Chile's reliance on copper exports. Additionally, the potential for significant political changes following the upcoming presidential and congressional elections may introduce further volatility to the CLP stability.
Overall, the GBP to CLP exchange rate could experience notable fluctuations in the coming weeks, driven by the outcomes of monetary policy decisions in the UK and political developments in Chile. Investors and businesses should stay informed about these dynamics, as adjustments in the market sentiment will be essential for planning international transactions effectively.
